بسیاری از صنایع، با به رسمیت شناختن ویروس کووید 19 و بیماری کرونا در مارس 2020 بهعنوان یک بیماری همهگیر توسط سازمان بهداشت جهانی، دچار زیان شدند؛ ورودی گردشگر خارجی به کشور ایران در شش ماهه ابتدای سال 1399 قریب به 96 درصد کاهش داشته است. تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از طرح آمارگیری نیروی کار سال 1398 و جدول داده- ستانده به روز شده دادههای سال 1390، به بررسی اثر کرونا در حوزه اشتغال بخش گردشگری ایران پرداخته است؛ نتایج نشان می دهد که در درازمدت 88/1 درصد به نرخ بیکاری اضافه می شود و از 4 میلیون و 575 هزار نفر شاغل در بخشهای مرتبط با گردشگری، قریب به 456 هزار نفر اشتغال خود را از دست می دهند. خدمات عمده فروشی و خرده فروشی، خدمات جادهای مسافر، خدمات پشتیبانی و کمکی حمل و نقل بالاترین رتبه از دست رفته اشتغال را در بین بخش های گردشگری داشتهاند.
عنوان مقاله [English]
Effects of Corona Epidemic on Labor Employment in Iran's Tourism-Related Industries
Many industries with predetermined plans have been completely suffered losses from the Covid-19 pandemic since March 2020, when the World Health Organization recognized it. The tourism industry can be considered one of the growing sectors damaged very quickly. Due to the prolongation of the Covid-19 pandemic, different aspects of the tourism industry and its degree of vulnerability are identified. Tourism-related businesses, including the hotel industry, food industry, transportation, handicrafts, and other related activities, have suffered the most during this period.Simultaneously with the negative effects of the corona disease on the economy and employment, the effects of the corona on tourism became more apparent. Still, due to the continuity of the corona and the need for rehabilitation during the corona and post-corona era, the need for more protocols and health guidelines is felt. Many countries have made reforms in this regard to continue their tourism industry at the same time as the pandemic.The important point is that researchers in this field should pay attention to the direct effects of corona on the tourism industry and its effects on related industries.
Materials and Methods
As it turns out, tourists spend money to buy goods and services at destinations. Some are paid directly for accommodation, food centres, restaurants, retail shopping, transportation, and related entertainment. Since it is done in the tourism industry and has revenues for these industries, it is called the "direct effects" of tourism on the economy. Due to the increasing demand for tourism products, players in the tourism and related industries are encouraged to increase the supply of products. Therefore, hiring new labourers and producing more goods from domestic producers occurs to meet the demand for tourism, which is called "indirect effects".
Increasing the employment of the labour force increases the total income of the residents of the tourist area that part of it is allocated to savings and part to the purchase goods and services for residents. The purchase of more goods and services by the surplus income creates additional demand and leads to more production and more employment, which is called the "induction effects". In general, "indirect effects" and "induction effects" constitute "secondary effects".
The inbound tourists to Iran in the first six months of 1399 have decreased by almost 96%, affecting Gross Domestic Product, employment, imports, and income distribution. The effects of this reduction on employment in the country, given the high unemployment rate of 10 percent is important so that policymakers can create short-term and long-term packages as much as possible to prevent the increase in unemployment in the country. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on the employment of Iran's tourism sector using the labour force statistics of the year 1398 and the updated input-output table of the year 1390.
Discussion and Results
As stated, of the approximately 24 million 273 thousand people employed in Iran (according to the labour force census), 4,575,000 people are employed in tourism-related activities.
As can be seen, there is a 1.88 percent decrease in employment and an increase in unemployment, of which 1.23 percent is a direct effect of the reduction in tourist arrivals, about 0.64 percent is based on the inter-sectorial relations of different sectors related to tourism, and 0.01 percent is due to induced demand.
The results extracted from the calculation of the direct, indirect, and induced effects show that 456,000 out of 4,575,000 people working in the 13 sectors related to the tourism industry have lost their jobs (299 thousand direct effects and 257 thousand indirect effects).
The experience of tourist countries in the Covid-19 pandemic has shown that although the arrival of the disease has severely damaged these countries, they have somehow maintained their tourism activities by creating protocols and instructions, including performing PCR tests before 72 hours of flight time, the separation of tourists and citizens of the country by creating quarantine courses, and allocation of quarantine places for suspected people.
Eventually, wholesale and retail services, transportation support and assistance services, passenger road transport, food and beverage neighbourhood services, and public accommodation have the most indirect negative impacts due to their close relationship with other industries.