شناسایی و پیش بینی بازار گردشگران سالمند بر مبنای ارزشهای مورد انتظار

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته مدیریت گردشگری دانشگاه شیخ بهایی

2 استاد تمام گروه مدیریت دانشگاه شیخ بهایی

3 گروه مدیریت ، دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

شناسایی بخش‌‌ها‌‌‌‌ی بازار گردشگری به توسعه­ی بهتر بسته‌های سفر و راهبردها‌‌ی کارآمدتر کمک می‌کند. با شناسا‌یی ارزشهای مورد انتظار ناشی از الگوهای رفتاری و مقایسه آن با علایق رفتاری سفر افراد سالمند درکنار ویژگی‌های فردی می‌توان بازار گردشگران سالمند را بخش‌‌‌بندی و پیش بینی کرد. این مطالعه از نظر هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ شیوه گردآوری اطلاعات، توصیفی- پیمایشی است. برای شناسایی ارزشهای مورد انتظار از رویکرد کیفی و روش دلفی و برای پیش­بینی گروه‌ها‌ی بازار از رویکرد کمی با استفاده  از شبکه‌های عصبی بهره می‌برد.این پژوهش بین 380 نفر ازگردشگران سالمندان اصفهانی و تهرانی به روش نمونه گیری غیر تصادفی و در دسترس انجام شده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد ارزشها ناشی از ویژگی‌های فردی و شخصیتی، انگیزه‌های سفر، تجربه سفر، سبک سفر و لذت سفر است. بازارگردشگران سالمند بر اساس ارزش­های مورد انتظار، با تکنیک شبکه عصبی در سه گروه محافظه کار،‌ مرفه و جوان شناسایی و پیش بینی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying and predicting the market for the "elderly" tourism with an approach to the expected values

نویسندگان [English]

  • shirin mahdavi 1
  • Mostafa Emadzadeh 2
  • azarnoush ansari 3
1 Graduated in Master of Tourism Management,Sheikh Bahaei University
2 Professor, Sheikh Bahaei University
3 Department of Management University of Isfahan,
چکیده [English]

The identification of tourism market segments helps to better develop travel packages and more efficient strategies. By identifying the expected values derived from the behavioral patterns and comparing them with the behavioral interests of the travel of elderly people, along with individual characteristics, the market for elderly tourists can be segmented and predicted. In terms of the purposes, this is an applied research and in terms of the data collection method, this is descriptive-survey. The qualitative approach and the Delphi method has been used to identify the expected values and, to predict market groups, a quantitative approach using neural networks has been used. This research has been conducted among 380 Esfahani and Tehrani elderly tourists using non-random and available sampling method. The results show that values are due to individual and personality traits, travel motives, travel experiences, travel style, and travel pleasure. The market for elderly tourists was identified and predicted based on the expected values, with the neural network technique in three conservative, prosperous and younger groups.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • elderly tourism
  • Neural Networks
  • motivations for traveling؛ traveling experience
  • traveling pleasure
نجار زاده، محمد، جعفری، نرگس و رجبی نگار (1396)، رابطه‌ی ساختاری ارزش درک شده و رضایت گردشگر با رفتار مسئولانه زیست محیطی: نقش میانجی مشارکت گردشگری، فصلنامه مطالعات مدیریت گردشگری، سال دوازدهم، شماره 37، 115-151
Alén, E., Losada, N., & de Carlos, P. (2017). "Profiling the segments of senior tourists throughout motivation and travel characteristics". Current Issues in Tourism20(14), 1454-1469.
Alén, E., Nicolau, J. L., Losada, N., & Domínguez, T. (2014)." Determinant factors of senior tourists’ length of stay". Annals of Tourism Research49, 19-32.
Ali, F., Kim, W. G., & Ryu, K. (2016). The effect of physical environment on passenger delight and satisfaction: Moderating effect of national identity. Tourism Management, 57, 213-224.
 Ali, F., Kim, W. G., Li, J., & Jeon, H. M. (2016). Make it delightful: Customers' experience, satisfaction and loyalty in Malaysian theme parks. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management.
Bakker, A.B. ; Van der zee,  K. I.; Levig , K. A.  & Dollard, M. F. (2006), “The Relationship between the big five personality factors and burnout: a study among volunteer counsellors”, The  Journal of  Social Psychology,146(1), 31–50.
Başarangil, İ. (2016). The relationships between the factors affecting perceived service quality, satisfaction and behavioral intentions among theme park visitors. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 1467358416664566
Bloom, Jonathan Z. (2005). "Market Segmentation: A Neural Network Application." Annals of Tourism Research. 32(1), 93–111.
Chen, C. F. (2008). Investigating structural relationships between service quality, perceived value, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions for air passengers: Evidence from Taiwan. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 42(4), 709-717.
 Chen, C. F., & Chen, F. S. (2010). Experience quality, perceived value, satisfaction and behavioral intentions for heritage tourists. Tourism management, 31(1), 29-35.
Chen, S. C., & Shoemaker, S. (2014). "Age and cohort effects: The American senior tourism market". Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 58-75.
Clarke, V., & Braun, V. (2014). "Thematic analysis". Encyclopedia of critical psychology (pp. 1947-1952). Springer New York.
Cole, S. T., & Scott, D. (2004). Examining the mediating role of experience quality in a model of tourist experiences. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 16(1), 79-90.
Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment.
Eusébio, C., Carneiro, M. J., Kastenholz, E., & Alvelos, H. (2017). "Social tourism programmes for the senior market: a benefit segmentation analysis". Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 15(1), 59-79.
Finn, A. (2005). Reassessing the foundations of customer delight. Journal of Service Research, 8(2), 103-116.
Guido, G., Capestro, M., & Peluso, A. M. (2007). Experimental analysis of consumer stimulation and motivational states in shopping experiences. International Journal of Market Research, 49(3), 365-386.
Hallak, R., Assaker, G., & El-Haddad, R. (2017). Re-examining the relationships among perceived quality, value, satisfaction, and destination loyalty: A higher-order structural model. Journal of Vacation Marketing, 1356766717690572.
He, W., Goodkind, D., & Kowal, P. R. (2016). An aging world: 2015. United States Census Bureau.
 Jin, N. P., Lee, S., & Lee, H. (2015). The effect of experience quality on perceived value, satisfaction, image and behavioral intention of water park patrons: New versus repeat visitors. International Journal of Tourism Research, 17(1), 82-95.
Johann, M., Johann, M., Padma, P., & Padma, P. (2016)." Benchmarking holiday experience: the case of senior tourists". Benchmarking: An International Journal23(7), 1860-1875.
Kao, Y. F., Huang, L. S., & Wu, C. H. (2008). Effects of theatrical elements on experiential quality and loyalty intentions for theme parks. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 13(2), 163-174.
Kim, M. J., Lee, C. K., & Bonn, M. (2016). "The effect of social capital and altruism on seniors' revisit intention to social network sites for tourism-related purposes". Tourism Management, 53, 96-107.
Kolb, B. (2017). Tourism Marketing for Cities and Towns: Using Social Media and Branding to Attract Tourists. Taylor & Francis.
Le Serre, D. & Chevalier, C.. (2012). "Marketing travel services to senior consumers". Journal of Consumer Marketing. 29 (4). 262 – 270.
Martin, L.G. and Preston, S.H. (1994) Demography of Aging. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Matzler, K., Bidmon, S., & Grabner-Kräuter, S. (2006). Individual determinants of brand affect: the role of the personality traits of extraversion and openness to experience. Journal of Product & Brand Management, 15(7), 427-434.
Ngai, E.W.T.; Xiu, Li; Chau, D.C.k. (2009). "Application of data mining techniques in customer relationship management: A literature review and classification", Expert systems with applications, 36, 2592-2602.
Oliver, R. L. (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of marketing research, 460-469.
Otto, J. E., & Ritchie, J. B. (1996). The service experience in tourism. Tourism management, 17(3), 165-174.
Petrick, J. F., & Backman, S. J. (2002). An examination of the construct of perceived value for the prediction of golf travelers’ intentions to revisit. Journal of Travel Research, 41(1), 38-45.
Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E., & McClelland, J. L. (1986). "A general framework for parallel distributed processing". Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition1, 45-76.
Ryu, K. and Han, H. (2010), “Influence of the quality of food, service, and physical environment on customer satisfaction in quick-casual restaurants: moderating role of perceived price”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 34 ( 3), 310-29.
Ward, A. (2014). "Segmenting the senior tourism market in Ireland based on travel motivations". Journal of Vacation Marketing20(3), 267-277.
Woo, E., Kim, H., & Uysal, M. (2016). "A measure of quality of life in elderly tourists". Applied Research in Quality of life, 11(1), 65-82.
World Tourism Organization (2000)," Major trends in travel and tourism demand", Tourism Marketing Strategy 2000- 2005, Tourisme Que´bec, Que´bec.
 Wu, H. C., Li, T., & Li, M. Y. (2016). A study of behavioral intentions, patient satisfaction, perceived value, patient trust and experiential quality for medical tourists. Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality & Tourism, 17(2), 114-150.
You, X. and O’Leary, J.T. (1999). "Destination behaviour of older UK travellers". Tourism Recreation Research. 24 (1), 23–34.
Zimmer, Z., Brayley, R.E. and Searle, M. (1995) "Whether to go and where to go: identification of important influences on senior’s decisions to travel". Journal of Travel Research .33, 3–10.نجار زاده، محمد، جعفری، نرگس و رجبی نگار (1396)،رابطه‌ی ساختاری ارزش درک شده و رضایت گردشگر با رفتار مسئولانه زیست محیطی: نقش میانجی مشارکت گردشگری،فصلنامهمطالعاتمدیریتگردشگری،سالدوازدهم،شماره37، 115-151
Alén, E., Losada, N., & de Carlos, P. (2017). "Profiling the segments of senior tourists throughout motivation and travel characteristics". Current Issues in Tourism20(14), 1454-1469.
Alén, E., Nicolau, J. L., Losada, N., & Domínguez, T. (2014)." Determinant factors of senior tourists’ length of stay". Annals of Tourism Research49, 19-32.
Ali, F., Kim, W. G., & Ryu, K. (2016). The effect of physical environment on passenger delight and satisfaction: Moderating effect of national identity. Tourism Management, 57, 213-224.
 Ali, F., Kim, W. G., Li, J., & Jeon, H. M. (2016). Make it delightful: Customers' experience, satisfaction and loyalty in Malaysian theme parks. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management.
Bakker, A.B.; Van der zee, K. I.; Levig, K. A. & Dollard, M. F. (2006),“The Relationship between the big five personality factors and burnout:a study among volunteer counsellors”, The  Journal of  Social Psychology,146(1), 31–50.
Başarangil, İ. (2016). The relationships between the factors affecting perceived service quality, satisfaction and behavioral intentions among theme park visitors. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 1467358416664566
Bloom, Jonathan Z. (2005). "Market Segmentation: A Neural Network Application." Annals of Tourism Research. 32(1), 93–111.
Chen, C. F. (2008). Investigating structural relationships between service quality, perceived value, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions for air passengers: Evidence from Taiwan. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 42(4), 709-717.
 Chen, C. F., & Chen, F. S. (2010). Experience quality, perceived value, satisfaction and behavioral intentions for heritage tourists. Tourism management, 31(1), 29-35.
Chen, S. C., & Shoemaker, S. (2014). "Age and cohort effects: The American senior tourism market". Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 58-75.
Clarke, V., & Braun, V. (2014). "Thematic analysis". Encyclopedia of critical psychology (pp. 1947-1952). Springer New York.
Cole, S. T., & Scott, D. (2004). Examining the mediating role of experience quality in a model of tourist experiences. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 16(1), 79-90.
Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment.
Eusébio, C., Carneiro, M. J., Kastenholz, E., & Alvelos, H. (2017). "Social tourism programmes for the senior market: a benefit segmentation analysis". Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 15(1), 59-79.
Finn, A. (2005). Reassessing the foundations of customer delight. Journal of Service Research, 8(2), 103-116.
Guido, G., Capestro, M., & Peluso, A. M. (2007). Experimental analysis of consumer stimulation and motivational states in shopping experiences. International Journal of Market Research, 49(3), 365-386.
Hallak, R., Assaker, G., & El-Haddad, R. (2017). Re-examining the relationships among perceived quality, value, satisfaction, and destination loyalty: A higher-order structural model. Journal of Vacation Marketing, 1356766717690572.
He, W., Goodkind, D., & Kowal, P. R. (2016). An aging world: 2015. United States Census Bureau.
 Jin, N. P., Lee, S., & Lee, H. (2015). The effect of experience quality on perceived value, satisfaction, image and behavioral intention of water park patrons: New versus repeat visitors. International Journal of Tourism Research, 17(1), 82-95.
Johann, M., Johann, M., Padma, P., & Padma, P. (2016)." Benchmarking holiday experience: the case of senior tourists". Benchmarking: An International Journal23(7), 1860-1875.
Kao, Y. F., Huang, L. S., & Wu, C. H. (2008). Effects of theatrical elements on experiential quality and loyalty intentions for theme parks. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 13(2), 163-174.
Kim, M. J., Lee, C. K., & Bonn, M. (2016). "The effect of social capital and altruism on seniors' revisit intention to social network sites for tourism-related purposes". Tourism Management, 53, 96-107.
Kolb, B. (2017). Tourism Marketing for Cities and Towns: Using Social Media and Branding to Attract Tourists. Taylor & Francis.
Le Serre, D. & Chevalier, C.. (2012). "Marketing travel services to senior consumers". Journal of Consumer Marketing. 29 (4). 262 – 270.
Martin, L.G. and Preston, S.H. (1994) Demography of Aging. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Matzler, K., Bidmon, S., & Grabner-Kräuter, S. (2006). Individual determinants of brand affect: the role of the personality traits of extraversion and openness to experience. Journal of Product & Brand Management, 15(7), 427-434.
Ngai, E.W.T.; Xiu, Li; Chau, D.C.k. (2009). "Application of data mining techniques in customer relationship management: A literature review and classification", Expert systems with applications, 36, 2592-2602.
Oliver, R. L. (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of marketing research, 460-469.
Otto, J. E., & Ritchie, J. B. (1996). The service experience in tourism. Tourism management, 17(3), 165-174.
Petrick, J. F., & Backman, S. J. (2002). An examination of the construct of perceived value for the prediction of golf travelers’ intentions to revisit. Journal of Travel Research, 41(1), 38-45.
Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E., & McClelland, J. L. (1986). "A general framework for parallel distributed processing". Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition1, 45-76.
Ryu, K. and Han, H. (2010), “Influence of the quality of food, service, and physical environment on customer satisfaction in quick-casual restaurants: moderating role of perceived price”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 34 ( 3), 310-29.
Ward, A. (2014). "Segmenting the senior tourism market in Ireland based on travel motivations". Journal of Vacation Marketing20(3), 267-277.
Woo, E., Kim, H., & Uysal, M. (2016). "A measure of quality of life in elderly tourists". Applied Research in Quality of life, 11(1), 65-82.
World Tourism Organization (2000)," Major trends in travel and tourism demand", Tourism Marketing Strategy 2000- 2005, Tourisme Que´bec, Que´bec.
 Wu, H. C., Li, T., & Li, M. Y. (2016). A study of behavioral intentions, patient satisfaction, perceived value, patient trust and experiential quality for medical tourists. Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality & Tourism, 17(2), 114-150.
You, X. and O’Leary, J.T. (1999). "Destination behaviour of older UK travellers". Tourism Recreation Research. 24 (1), 23–34.
Zimmer, Z., Brayley, R.E. and Searle, M. (1995) "Whether to go and where to go: identification of important influences on senior’s decisions to travel". Journal of Travel Research .33, 3–10.
نجار زاده، محمد، جعفری، نرگس و رجبی نگار (1396)،رابطه‌ی ساختاری ارزش درک شده و رضایت گردشگر با رفتار مسئولانه زیست محیطی: نقش میانجی مشارکت گردشگری،فصلنامهمطالعاتمدیریتگردشگری،سالدوازدهم،شماره37، 115-151
Alén, E., Losada, N., & de Carlos, P. (2017). "Profiling the segments of senior tourists throughout motivation and travel characteristics". Current Issues in Tourism20(14), 1454-1469.
Alén, E., Nicolau, J. L., Losada, N., & Domínguez, T. (2014)." Determinant factors of senior tourists’ length of stay". Annals of Tourism Research49, 19-32.
Ali, F., Kim, W. G., & Ryu, K. (2016). The effect of physical environment on passenger delight and satisfaction: Moderating effect of national identity. Tourism Management, 57, 213-224.
 Ali, F., Kim, W. G., Li, J., & Jeon, H. M. (2016). Make it delightful: Customers' experience, satisfaction and loyalty in Malaysian theme parks. Journal of Destination Marketing & Management.
Bakker, A.B.; Van der zee, K. I.; Levig, K. A. & Dollard, M. F. (2006),“The Relationship between the big five personality factors and burnout:a study among volunteer counsellors”, The  Journal of  Social Psychology,146(1), 31–50.
Başarangil, İ. (2016). The relationships between the factors affecting perceived service quality, satisfaction and behavioral intentions among theme park visitors. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 1467358416664566
Bloom, Jonathan Z. (2005). "Market Segmentation: A Neural Network Application." Annals of Tourism Research. 32(1), 93–111.
Chen, C. F. (2008). Investigating structural relationships between service quality, perceived value, satisfaction, and behavioral intentions for air passengers: Evidence from Taiwan. Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 42(4), 709-717.
 Chen, C. F., & Chen, F. S. (2010). Experience quality, perceived value, satisfaction and behavioral intentions for heritage tourists. Tourism management, 31(1), 29-35.
Chen, S. C., & Shoemaker, S. (2014). "Age and cohort effects: The American senior tourism market". Annals of Tourism Research, 48, 58-75.
Clarke, V., & Braun, V. (2014). "Thematic analysis". Encyclopedia of critical psychology (pp. 1947-1952). Springer New York.
Cole, S. T., & Scott, D. (2004). Examining the mediating role of experience quality in a model of tourist experiences. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 16(1), 79-90.
Costa, P. T., & McCrae, R. R. (1992). Revised NEO Personality Inventory (NEO-PI-R) and NEO Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) professional manual. Odessa, FL: Psychological Assessment.
Eusébio, C., Carneiro, M. J., Kastenholz, E., & Alvelos, H. (2017). "Social tourism programmes for the senior market: a benefit segmentation analysis". Journal of Tourism and Cultural Change, 15(1), 59-79.
Finn, A. (2005). Reassessing the foundations of customer delight. Journal of Service Research, 8(2), 103-116.
Guido, G., Capestro, M., & Peluso, A. M. (2007). Experimental analysis of consumer stimulation and motivational states in shopping experiences. International Journal of Market Research, 49(3), 365-386.
Hallak, R., Assaker, G., & El-Haddad, R. (2017). Re-examining the relationships among perceived quality, value, satisfaction, and destination loyalty: A higher-order structural model. Journal of Vacation Marketing, 1356766717690572.
He, W., Goodkind, D., & Kowal, P. R. (2016). An aging world: 2015. United States Census Bureau.
 Jin, N. P., Lee, S., & Lee, H. (2015). The effect of experience quality on perceived value, satisfaction, image and behavioral intention of water park patrons: New versus repeat visitors. International Journal of Tourism Research, 17(1), 82-95.
Johann, M., Johann, M., Padma, P., & Padma, P. (2016)." Benchmarking holiday experience: the case of senior tourists". Benchmarking: An International Journal23(7), 1860-1875.
Kao, Y. F., Huang, L. S., & Wu, C. H. (2008). Effects of theatrical elements on experiential quality and loyalty intentions for theme parks. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 13(2), 163-174.
Kim, M. J., Lee, C. K., & Bonn, M. (2016). "The effect of social capital and altruism on seniors' revisit intention to social network sites for tourism-related purposes". Tourism Management, 53, 96-107.
Kolb, B. (2017). Tourism Marketing for Cities and Towns: Using Social Media and Branding to Attract Tourists. Taylor & Francis.
Le Serre, D. & Chevalier, C.. (2012). "Marketing travel services to senior consumers". Journal of Consumer Marketing. 29 (4). 262 – 270.
Martin, L.G. and Preston, S.H. (1994) Demography of Aging. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
Matzler, K., Bidmon, S., & Grabner-Kräuter, S. (2006). Individual determinants of brand affect: the role of the personality traits of extraversion and openness to experience. Journal of Product & Brand Management, 15(7), 427-434.
Ngai, E.W.T.; Xiu, Li; Chau, D.C.k. (2009). "Application of data mining techniques in customer relationship management: A literature review and classification", Expert systems with applications, 36, 2592-2602.
Oliver, R. L. (1980). A cognitive model of the antecedents and consequences of satisfaction decisions. Journal of marketing research, 460-469.
Otto, J. E., & Ritchie, J. B. (1996). The service experience in tourism. Tourism management, 17(3), 165-174.
Petrick, J. F., & Backman, S. J. (2002). An examination of the construct of perceived value for the prediction of golf travelers’ intentions to revisit. Journal of Travel Research, 41(1), 38-45.
Rumelhart, D. E., Hinton, G. E., & McClelland, J. L. (1986). "A general framework for parallel distributed processing". Parallel distributed processing: Explorations in the microstructure of cognition1, 45-76.
Ryu, K. and Han, H. (2010), “Influence of the quality of food, service, and physical environment on customer satisfaction in quick-casual restaurants: moderating role of perceived price”, Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Research, 34 ( 3), 310-29.
Ward, A. (2014). "Segmenting the senior tourism market in Ireland based on travel motivations". Journal of Vacation Marketing20(3), 267-277.
Woo, E., Kim, H., & Uysal, M. (2016). "A measure of quality of life in elderly tourists". Applied Research in Quality of life, 11(1), 65-82.
World Tourism Organization (2000)," Major trends in travel and tourism demand", Tourism Marketing Strategy 2000- 2005, Tourisme Que´bec, Que´bec.
 Wu, H. C., Li, T., & Li, M. Y. (2016). A study of behavioral intentions, patient satisfaction, perceived value, patient trust and experiential quality for medical tourists. Journal of Quality Assurance in Hospitality & Tourism, 17(2), 114-150.
You, X. and O’Leary, J.T. (1999). "Destination behaviour of older UK travellers". Tourism Recreation Research. 24 (1), 23–34.
Zimmer, Z., Brayley, R.E. and Searle, M. (1995) "Whether to go and where to go: identification of important influences on senior’s decisions to travel". Journal of Travel Research .33, 3–10.