نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

• اسماعیل رسولی

کارشناس ارشد توسعه و برنامه ریزی اقتصادی

چکیده

در این تحقیق تقاضای جهانگرد ورودی به ایران برای دوازده کشوری که بیشترین جهانگرد را به ایران فرستاده اند و از شرکای تجاری مهم ایران بوده اند با استفاده از روش پانل دیتا برای دوره 1999-1969 تخمین زده شده متغیرهای مستقل عبارتند از نرخ ارز بازار آزاد ایران شاخص قیمت مصرف کننده ایران، تولید ناخالص داخلی کشورهای جهانگرد فرست، جمعیت کشورهای جهانگرد فرست، حجم تجارت به صورت جمع کل واردات و صادرات غیر نفتی بین ایران و کشورهای جهانگرد فرست، متغیر مجازی برای دوران جنگ و تعداد جهانگردان ورودی به ایران به عنوان متغیر وابسته منظور شده است. در مدل اولیه تمام متغیرها به غیر از نرخ ارز معنی دار بوده و دارای علامت مورد انتظار می باشند اما مدل دچار خود همبستگی بوده که بعد از رفع آن تمام متغیرها به جز قیمت معنی دار بوده ولی با توجه به معنی دار بودن پارامتر خود رگرسیون در نهایت از مدل پویا استفاده شد بدین منظور از تعداد جهانگردان ورودی دوره قبل در مدل استفاده شد. بدین منظور از تعداد جهانگردان ورودی دوره قبل در مدل استفاده شد. در مدل نهایی تمام متغیرها معنی دار بوده و دارای علامت مورد انتظار نیز می باشند. همچنین در تمام مدلها اثرات ثابت توصیه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

• جهانگرد
• تابع تقاضا
• ایران
• مدل
• مدل پویا

عنوان مقاله [English]

A Model for Estimating Tourism Demand for Iran

نویسنده [English]

• esmaeil rasuli

چکیده [English]

The contribution of tourism and travel to both industrialized and developing countries is now so great that any changes in the level of activity in the industry are a cause for concern. There have been many instances where the tourism industry in one or more countries has suffered an unexpected and sudden downturn in demand. Policy makers are faced with the predicament of if and how they should respond to such crises in the absence of research into the relative effectiveness of different responses. TI1is paper shows that it is difficult, if not impossible, to formulate polices that guarantee that tourism can be maintained for a long time. This paper examines constructing a computable general model to analyze the effects of tourism crisis and potential and actual policy responses to the crisis.A panel Discussion model is a useful tool in forecasting and evaluating tourism demand. The model is built around a set of data taken from national accounts sources. The input• output table is derived from the national input-output table, with additional considered. The main objectives of this paper were to develop a planning tool as well as the assessment of land use paucn and quantitative and qualitative estimation of tourists, and its management, with reference to conservation, and determination of demographic trends. Based on the carrying capacity, estimating the hotel bed capacity is possible. Summarizing the core of Butler's theory is another related concept which is being described, according to which in an unexploited area, the tourists are initally only a few people and their number grows very slowly (exploration) . Following this discovery period, there is a phase of rapid growth, in general accompanied by a cocomitant capital development, and , finally, a stagnation phase. accommodated in an area. It is the prescribed number of visitors at one time that will be accommodated. Experts have often made use of the concept of carrying capacity in addressing the tourism that is developed and managed in such a way that all tourism activity- which in some way focuses on cultural of nature heritage resources - can continue to grow. Carrying capacity is simply the largest number of any given type of tourists that a destination can support without making any socio-cultural and natural negative effect. One suggestion for dealing with the impacts of tourism has been a call for establishing a tourism carrying capacity for different regions. Carrying capacity is fundamentally a quantitative term, arrived at through asking "How many is too many?" But the problems associated with increasing tourism arc not so much a function of numbers , as of behavior . Instead of trying to determine some' magic number', that itself varies according to climate, type, and perceptions of use, we should ask, "What are the acceptable/appropriate conditions for our country?" Carrying capacities in nature are not fixed , static, or simple relations . They are contingent on technology, preferences, and the structure of production and consumption. Most recent studies on "carrying capacity" do not try to set a magic Number that is a so- called optimal number of visitors. Several factors including seasonality and distribution across the region must be