A Simulation-Based Hybrid Model for Forecasting the Development of Shopping Tourism in Iran's Free Trade and Industrial Zones with an Emphasis on Phygital Marketing

Naghavi, Seyedali; Zarei, Ghasem; Bashokouh Ajirlou, Mohammad; Seifollahi, Naser

doi:10.22054/tms.2025.87238.3096

A Simulation-Based Hybrid Model for Forecasting the Development of Shopping Tourism in Iran's Free Trade and Industrial Zones with an Emphasis on Phygital Marketing

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

seyedali naghavi ¹

ghasem zarei ²

Mohammad Bashokouh Ajirlou ²

Naser Seifollahi ²

¹ Ph.D Candidate of Business Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

² Professor, Department of Business Management, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22054/tms.2025.87238.3096

Abstract

The present study was conducted with the aim of presenting an innovative and forward-looking model to explain and predict the role of Phygital Marketing in the development of shopping tourism in Iran's free zones. The present research method was mixed, applied, and descriptive-analytical. In the qualitative part, the main and subthemes of shopping tourism development were collected through semi-structured interviews with university professors, managers, and experts in free zones using the snowball method and examined with content analysis. In the quantitative part, a questionnaire was distributed among experts using the judgmental method. The factors identified were prioritized using the Fuzzy Delphi, scenarios were developed using the Taguchi experimental design, and finally the desired scenario was simulated using system dynamics modeling and factor-based modeling. The simulation results showed that by applying the desired scenario, the rate of shopping tourism development in Iran's free zones will increase by 86 percent.

Keywords

Shopping Tourism

Phygital Marketing

Simulation

Modeling

Iran’s Free Trade and Industrial Zones

Subjects