Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1 Master of Tourism, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor of Department of Public Administration and Tourism, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.
Abstract
The tourism industry, relying heavily on natural resources, is a major contributor to environmental pollution and carbon emissions, making it essential to address its environmental impacts. This study aims to develop scenarios for the use of green technologies in low-carbon tourism through a mixed-method approach. In the first phase, using a qualitative method (focus groups), 23 key indicators were identified, and 18 influencing factors were determined. Subsequently, with a quantitative scenario-building approach, cost and access to green energy were identified as the most significant uncertainties. Based on the analysis, four future scenarios were developed: Low-Carbon (Green) Future, Unsuccessful Future, Costly Future, and Restricted Future. The desirable scenario could lead to sustainable destination development, cost reduction, and increased investment, whereas the undesirable scenario poses environmental risks and reduces travel motivation.
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