Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor, Faculty of Social Sciences and Economics, Alzahra University, Tehran

2 PHD Student of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.

3 PHD of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran

Abstract

Attracting foreign tourists could have a positive impact on the economy through the income achieved, But this requires the provision of minimums that have a determining effect on tourists’ decisions about whether choose or avoid entering a particular country. One of the most important variables influencing the decision is related to safety. The present article was to investigate the effect of institutional political risk index and its sub-indices on attracting tourists. Hence, MENA countries during the period 1995 to 2016 were selected as the test sample. To estimate the models we used FMOLS[1], and results showed that political risk as total factor has a determinant impact on attracting tourists. Also, the estimation showed the internal and external conflict sub-indices among other political risk ones have had a greater effect on attracting foreign tourists.



[1]  Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square

Keywords

راسخی، سعید و محمدی، ثریا. (1396)، عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای گردشگری کشورهای حوزه دریای خزر. مطالعات مدیریت گردشگری، 12(38)، 81-63.
شاه­آبادی، ابوالفضل و سیاح، علی. (1392)، تأثیر زیرساخت­های اقتصادی بر گردشگری: رویکرد پانل دیتا مقایسه‌ی تطبیقی کشورهای درحال‌توسعه و توسعه‌یافته. برنامه‌ریزی و توسعه گردشگری، 2(7)، 43-25.
دائی کریم­زاده، سعید؛ قبادی، سارا و فرودستان، نسیم. (1392)، عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای گردشگری بین­المللی ایران: رهیافت خود توضیح با وقفه­های گسترده (ARDL). مطالعات مدیریت گردشگری، 8(23)، 154-131.
شاه­آبادی، ابوالفضل؛ سیاح، علی و پورجوان، عبداله. (1390)، عوامل مؤثر بر جذب گردشگر در کشورهای گروه D8. اولین همایش ملی گردشگری پایدار سیستان و بلوچستان، 3-5 خردادماه.
Giray Gozgor, G., Demir, E., & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin, M.H. (2017). The effects of the military in politics on the inbound tourism: Evidence from Turkey. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 22(4), 370-380.
Ruan, W-Q., Li, Y-Q & Sam Liu, C-H. (2017). Measuring tourism risk impacts on destination image. Sustainability, 9(9), 1-15.
Tkalec, M. & Žilić, I. (2017). Does proximity to conflict affect tourism: Evidence from NATO bombing? Radni Materijali EIZ-an EIZ Working Papers, ISSN 1846-4238. No.1704, 1-22.
Ivanov. S., Gavrilina, M., Craig Webste, C., & Ralko, V. (2016). Impacts of political instability on the tourism industry in Ukraine. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, ISSN: 1940-7963. 9(1), 100-127.
María Santana-Gallego, M., Rosselló-Nadal, J., & Fourie. J. (2016). The effects of terrorism, crime and corruption on tourism. Conference proceedings, 7th Advances in hospitality & tourism marketing & management (AHTMM) conference, Famagusta, Cyprus, 10-15 July 2017. 179-196.
Muzindutsi, P-F & Manaliyo, J.C. (2016). Effect of political risk shocks on tourism revenue in South Africa: Time series analysis. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 8(2), 169-186.
Štetić, S. (2016). Risks in tourism (on the example of events). Quaestus Multidisciplinary Research Journal. No.8, 68-78.
Zopiatis, A., Savva, C.S., Lambertides, N., & McAleer, M. (2016). Tourism stocks in times of crises: An econometric investigation of non-macro factors. Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-104/III, Tinbergen Institute.
Altindag, D. (2014).Crime and international tourism. Auburn University Department of Economics Working Paper Series, 35(1), 1-14.
Causevic, S. & Lynch, P. (2013). Political (in) stability and its influence on tourism development. Tourism Management, No. 34, 145-157.
Yap, G. & Saha, S. (2013). Do political instability, terrorism, and corruption have deterring effects on tourism development even in the presence of UNESCO heritage? A cross-country panel estimate. Tourism Analysis, 18(5), 587–599.
Varua, M.E. & Saverimuttu, V. (2012). The impact of political unrest or internal conflict on inbound tourism in the republic of the Philippines. International Journal of Development and Conflict, 2(2), 1250003:1- 1250003:11.
Seetanah, B., Durbarry, R. & Ragodoo, J.F. N. (2010). Using the panel cointegration approach to analyse the determinants of tourism demand in South Africa, Tourism Economics, 16(3); 715-729.
Aslan, A., Kula, F., & Kaplan, M. (2009). International tourism demand for Turkey: A dynamic panel data approach. A Research Journal of International Studies, No. 9, 64-75.
Sequeira, T.N. & Nunes, P.M. (2008). Does country risk influence international tourism? A dynamic panel data analysis. The Economic Record, 84(265), 223–236.
Khadaroo, J. & Seetanah, B. (2007). Transport infrastructure and tourism development. Annals of Tourism Research, 34(4); 1021–1032.
Naude, W. & Saayman, A. (2005). Determinants of tourist arrivals in Africa: A panel data regression analysis. Tourism Economics, 11(3); 365–391.
Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics22(2), 265-312.
Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels. IZA Discussion Papers 1240. Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H., & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics115(1), 53-74.
Kao, C. (1999). Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data. Journal of Econometrics90(1), 1-44.
Sinclair, M. (1998). Tourism and economic development: a survey. Journal of Development Studies, No. 34, 1–51.
Howell, L.D. & Chaddick, B. (1994). Models of political risk for foreign investment and trade: An assessment of three approaches. The Columbian of World Business, 29(3), 70-91.
Schmidt, D. A. (1986). Analyzing political risks. Business Horizons, 29(4), 43-50.
wdi.worldbank.org
www.prsgroup.com