Investigating the impact of uncertainty in factors influencing the religious and non-religious tourism

Khadem Nematollahy, Mahboobeh; Ashraf Ganjoei, Reza; Shakery, Abbas

doi:10.22054/tms.2026.91768.3183

Investigating the impact of uncertainty in factors influencing the religious and non-religious tourism

Articles in Press

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

mahboobeh khadem nematollahy ¹

Reza Ashraf Ganjoei ²

abbas shakery ³

¹ allameh tabatabai university

² Assistant Professor, Department of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Sistan and Baluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

³ Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabaei University, Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22054/tms.2026.91768.3183

Abstract

Tourism plays a role in economic growth. in certainty, tourism is more stable. in uncertainty, fluctuations in tourist behavior increase. This study examines the impact of uncertainty on demand in Iran, utilizing data from the years 2011 to 2024 and employing a fuzzy regression approach. The model estimates right, middle, and left fuzzy spreads for each variable. it considers inflation, GDP growth, GDP per capita, political stability, financial balance, trade openness, financial development index, and democracy. Results show that political stability (0.746), trade openness (0.113), GDP growth (1.142e-09), and inflation (0.53) affect religious tourism demand. For non-religious tourism, trade openness with a fuzzy coefficient of (5.01e-11), followed by GDP growth (3.98e-11) and per capita GDP (4.255e-11), are identified as the most important factors affecting demand. inflation (1.45e-10), political stability (0.808) and trade openness(5.01e-11) show different impacts. Findings highlight the importance of managing uncertainty to achieve tourism development.

Keywords

Tourism demand

religious and non-religious tourism

uncertainty

fuzzy regression

Subjects