Tourism Management Studies

Forecasting the Appropriate Time for Nature Tourism in the Mangrove Forests of the Hara Protected Area with Emphasis on Weather Conditions

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

Parvaneh Sobhani 1
Afshin Danehkar 2

1 Assistant Professor, Department of Environment, Faculty of Natural Resources, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

2 Professor, Department of Environmental Science, Natural Resources Faculty, University of Tehran, Karaj, ‎Iran

https://doi.org/10.22054/tms.2024.81867.2976
Abstract
In the ‎present study, using Terjong climate index, the ‎optimal time of day and night tourism was ‎determined (from 1996 to ‎‎2021) in the mangrove forests of the Hara protected area. Then ‎using ‎ACCESS-CM2 and CNRM-CM6-1 models to predict the suitable times ‎for the ‎development of nature tourism under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 ‎scenarios. Terjong index showed that ‎the best time for ‎nature tourism in this region is during the day in the months of January, ‎‎February and March and during the night in the months of April and ‎November. ‎It is observed that the ‎maximum temperature trend has accelerated since ‎the second half of the 2050s and its average ‎has increased under the ‎SSP5-8.5 scenario in the period of 2090-2099. Although the rainfall ‎‎trend is fluctuating, it shows a decreasing trend in a significant part of ‎the year. I‎

Keywords

Development of nature tourism
Terjong index
Climate forecasting ‎models
Mangrove forests
‎Hara protected area
Subjects
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Tourism Management Studies
Volume 20, Issue 69
Winter 2025
Pages 169-204

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